November Surprise?

No, Rumsfeld's leaving the Defence Department is not a surprise. The surprise is that Bush saved it until the day after.

It is a good start. Now we will see if Bush can govern without majorities in Congress. Can you see the realities in front of you instead of stubbornly sticking to ideology and adapt Mr. President?

Memo to Democrats

Pulitzer prize winning columnist Leonard Pitts had some good things to say in his most recent column (also published in The Buffalo News).

We have suffered through a very divisive time in politics and we need some real change. Here are a few of my thoughts:

• The changes in the House of Representatives, Governors' Mansions and possibly in the Senate are a repudiation of Bush's disaster in Iraq. Get us out.
• Enough of the Red States, Blue States. How about some purple (or as Pitts writes, red, white and blue)? We need a sense of national destiny again. I never much agreed with Reagan, but he got "the vision thing."
• We don't want too many hearings. Don't waste time on the trivial. Keep it simple, find out who broke the law by lying to us about WMD in Iraq. Otherwise, move on and focus on healing our country.
• We need to repair our image overseas. We are the world's only super power, but can we please stop the arrogance?
• Close the gap between the rich and the poor that has grown so large during the Bush years.
• And, Health Care. Do something to fix our broken system. That would require political bravery.
• Social Security needs attention not partisanship.

Real leadership will require compromise. Compromise, but keep your principals with humility not hubris.

Can't Tell a Joke?

Senator Kerry need not apologize to me. I got the joke. If you don't pay attention in school, even joke that you were a "C" student in a graduation address at your alma mater, then you get us stuck in Iraq.

Maybe the trouble is that the 2004 Democratic standard bearer can't tell a joke without messing up the punchline. His family says he's a very funny man but you cannot see that when he's campaigning. Not a bad guy, maybe a good senator, but not much of a campaigner, especially when giving a speech in public.

Kerry did the right thing when apologizing to the troops, their parents and the country. But Democrats should not back off. This is no time to be intimidated by a dummy in the White House who refuses to hold his people accountable or take responsibility for his stupidity

More on Reynolds

A couple hours after I posted on The October Surprise I got into my car and heard a report that Tom Reynolds has a slight lead over Jack Davis in the most recent poll.

The October Surprise

There he is front and center on the front page of yesterday's The Buffalo News announcing that President Bush has declared Western New York a major disaster area. What does that mean? It means that Tom Reynolds, U.S. House of Representatives, Republican, 26th district New York State, has brought more federal dollars to our region hard hit by the "October Surprise" snow storm. (Really, that's what local media has been calling the storm that dumped two feet of wet heavy snow on Thursday and Friday, October 12 and 13.)

Clearly on the defensive just three weeks ago because of the Foley scandal, Tom Reynolds seems to be rebounding because of his swift response to the storm. Sure there has been criticism because he brought FEMA in for an extensive tour that included the wealthy suburb of Amherst (in his district) but not the city of Buffalo (not in his district). That criticism will fall on deaf ears for many of his constituents, the point is that he had the clout to make a difference where they live.

If you know Reynolds (full disclosure: I moved out of his district intentionally a couple years ago.) you know that he is a firm adherent to Tip O'Niell's mantra that, "All politics is local." He knows how to bring home the bacon.

When the Foley emails to a former congressional page surfaced, Reynolds was put on the defensive because all he did was report them to his boss, Speaker Dennis Hastert, Republican, Illinois. He seems to have known of the emails as early as last spring, reported them to Hastert, and done nothing more. As more of the scandal got out Reynolds felt the increasing heat. Initially he laid low, but eventually a downstate media expert put Reynolds in an ad for an apology to his constituents. The congressman looked very uncomfortable on camera. He spoke haltingly and seemed to be sweating as his face filled the screen.

Jack Davis, the Democratic Candidate aiming for Reynold's seat inched into a narrow lead. Now Mr. Davis may not really be a Democrat, and he certainly is not a politician. He is kind of a Johnny One Note; a businessman against free trade.

Then came the October Surprise, a snow storm. The paid political ad apologizing was bad; the ad running now is effective. Jack Davis was on a local radio show in the spring. He seems to be against federal pork and was also quoted as having questions about member items by The Buffalo News. Reynold's ad makes the point that Davis would not even bring home dollars for a fire truck for the local "first responders."

Stepping out against federal pork barrel spending (the multimillion dollar bridge to nowhere in Ketchikan, Alaska is an example of federal pork) is admirable for a politician. But it won't get you elected, especially if the people in the district are trying to figure who is going to pay for getting rid of all those downed trees and tree limbs.

Prediction: Tip O'Niell was right. All politics are local and barring another October Surprise, Reynolds will retain his seat. He should thank Mother Nature.