The October Surprise

There he is front and center on the front page of yesterday's The Buffalo News announcing that President Bush has declared Western New York a major disaster area. What does that mean? It means that Tom Reynolds, U.S. House of Representatives, Republican, 26th district New York State, has brought more federal dollars to our region hard hit by the "October Surprise" snow storm. (Really, that's what local media has been calling the storm that dumped two feet of wet heavy snow on Thursday and Friday, October 12 and 13.)

Clearly on the defensive just three weeks ago because of the Foley scandal, Tom Reynolds seems to be rebounding because of his swift response to the storm. Sure there has been criticism because he brought FEMA in for an extensive tour that included the wealthy suburb of Amherst (in his district) but not the city of Buffalo (not in his district). That criticism will fall on deaf ears for many of his constituents, the point is that he had the clout to make a difference where they live.

If you know Reynolds (full disclosure: I moved out of his district intentionally a couple years ago.) you know that he is a firm adherent to Tip O'Niell's mantra that, "All politics is local." He knows how to bring home the bacon.

When the Foley emails to a former congressional page surfaced, Reynolds was put on the defensive because all he did was report them to his boss, Speaker Dennis Hastert, Republican, Illinois. He seems to have known of the emails as early as last spring, reported them to Hastert, and done nothing more. As more of the scandal got out Reynolds felt the increasing heat. Initially he laid low, but eventually a downstate media expert put Reynolds in an ad for an apology to his constituents. The congressman looked very uncomfortable on camera. He spoke haltingly and seemed to be sweating as his face filled the screen.

Jack Davis, the Democratic Candidate aiming for Reynold's seat inched into a narrow lead. Now Mr. Davis may not really be a Democrat, and he certainly is not a politician. He is kind of a Johnny One Note; a businessman against free trade.

Then came the October Surprise, a snow storm. The paid political ad apologizing was bad; the ad running now is effective. Jack Davis was on a local radio show in the spring. He seems to be against federal pork and was also quoted as having questions about member items by The Buffalo News. Reynold's ad makes the point that Davis would not even bring home dollars for a fire truck for the local "first responders."

Stepping out against federal pork barrel spending (the multimillion dollar bridge to nowhere in Ketchikan, Alaska is an example of federal pork) is admirable for a politician. But it won't get you elected, especially if the people in the district are trying to figure who is going to pay for getting rid of all those downed trees and tree limbs.

Prediction: Tip O'Niell was right. All politics are local and barring another October Surprise, Reynolds will retain his seat. He should thank Mother Nature.